"Manwich - now Keto-Friendly" (manwich)
02/26/2020 at 18:15 • Filed to: None
0
15|
"Manwich - now Keto-Friendly" (manwich)
02/26/2020 at 18:15 • Filed to: None | 0
| 15 |
A short while ago, I sold my TSLA shares a little too soon in the high $400 range.
I didn’t expect the shares to go to the moon the way they have. I still did well either way.
Anyway... I’m thinking about where to reinvest the proceeds... and I’m thinking of Ford.
Here are some of the good points at Ford:
They’re still doing great with trucks
They have $258
Billion in assets, with about $34 billion in cash and short term investments.
I think the Mustang Mach E will be a hit and will be a key vehicle for saving their ass in the EU and Chinese market.
The share price is at 2009 levels, where then they had much lower revenue. And the company is in much better shape today than in 2009 I think.
They pay a 15 cent/quarter dividend and they are bringing in more than enough cash flow to keep paying it.
Lincoln’s latest designs seem to be successful
With FCA merging with PSA, Ford and others may be able to steal some sales from them while management at the newly merged company focuses on merger integration activities. In my past observations , big mergers like this usually hurt the company for 1-3 years after it happens before the benefits start happening
With GM “cutting their way to success”, it’s another opportunity for Ford and others
in Australia and other markets they are pulling out of.
With Nissan/Renault in crisis, it’s another opportunity for Ford and others
to steal sales from them
Here are some worrying points
I think the main reason why shares are down is because Q1 earnings are expected to be bad... partly due to the Coronavirus thing
They have a lot of debt... over $100Billion... though most is tied to Ford Credit. $13 billion is tied to automotive.
This ‘cancelling all cars’ thing in North America doesn’t seem to have helped their profitability and margins as was claimed. It did help them to lose market share and revenue though.
While the Mustang Mach E and their other projects sound promising, there is no getting around the fact that they are still at least 5 years behind Tesla, just like most other car makers. And combine that with CO2-related regs in places like the EU and China, it means Tesla will continue to grow their market share... and THAT means other car makers, including Ford, are at high risk of losing market share.
EU emissions... They have to meet 95g/km for 95% of their lineup in 2020... and that same emissions level for 100% of their line in 2021. That suggests that 2020 will be the last year they sell the V8 Mustang in the EU. Hell, they’ll probably have to drop everything that has a gas engine bigger than the 1.5L Ecoboost as well as their more powerful diesels... either that or pay massive fines. To keep a car like a V8 Mustang on sale in Europe, they would have to raise the price by at least 20,000 Euros to cover the CO2 fines. Here is some info on the EU CO2 emissions regs:
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
Anyway... here’s a Shelby Mustang Mach E for your thoughts:
412GTI
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/26/2020 at 19:14 |
|
I don’t invest in stocks and can’t say for certain if it’s a good idea or not. My personal opinion is their current CEO, Jim Hackett, doesn’t give me great confidence . Based on opinion articles I’ve read, his likely replacement, Jim Farley doesn’t give me much faith either. I do think they have some great products coming in the near future, so long as they don’t botch the launches badly like with the Explorer/Aviator.
I’ll link the opinion article about the Farley/Hackett. Not sure how credited the author is, just happened to stumble across his blog the other day.
http://www.autoextremist.com/current/2020/2/9/fords-highway-to-hell.html
Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/26/2020 at 19:19 |
|
Ford is a large cap stock not a growth stock. You'll get good dividends but if you're not retired, you'll probably just want to reinvest. I can't in good faith recommend individual stocks though...
NKato
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/26/2020 at 19:48 |
|
Ford, Ford of the jungle, watch out for that tree- *tires screech, crash*
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
02/26/2020 at 20:10 |
|
Well they’re a large cap cyclical stock. So with stocks like that, you wait for them to drop to a low price, jump in and wait for the top of the cycle to happen.
I’m not sure if they are at the bottom of the current cycle yet... might still have some more room to drop.
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> NKato
02/26/2020 at 20:14 |
|
someassemblyrequired
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/26/2020 at 22:37 |
|
I have some in a portfolio I manage for a family member
, it’s a reliable dividend payer, and I think much better run than GM. If you like it, just buy the stock, sell a covered call to juice the returns a bit/protect to the downside, and enjoy the dividends.
Auto biz is very cyclical though, if the economy takes a bad turn, it’s worth selling and jumping back in 12-24 months later. Always a good idea to diversify and slowly increase positions
(especially now that trade commissions are gone).
Nothing in the above is investment advice disclaimer goes here...
Under_Score
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/26/2020 at 23:10 |
|
Their shares are consistently cheap. This isn’t something promising growth potential (or falls) like Tesla, Amazon, etc.
Something I have heard about? Buying partial Bitcoin. The price is slipping again (yours truly bought $25 worth in the 10,000's, oof), but the upcoming halving is supposed to make Bitcoin skyrocket.
wafflesnfalafel
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/27/2020 at 00:10 |
|
flee to gold! flee to gold!
Ash78, voting early and often
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/27/2020 at 09:50 |
|
Just remember Ford is a blue chip and the results will be wildly different than TSLA.
You might as well be buying Proctor & Gamble (which I’ve had for the long run!) because their volume and market position makes them a near-commodity.
Let’s say the Mach-E fills all of its orders and the news breaks. The stock will be up 1.5%. Compare that to Tesla’s news results where the stock moves 5%+ in a given day.
Just be prepared for long-run boredom, but probably some upside if they do it right
. I was long Ford for about 3-4 years when they were revamping their lineup with more “world cars” and it all looked like a home run. I sold them for about break even, which was the lowest performing stock/fund I had for that period of time.
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> someassemblyrequired
02/27/2020 at 10:56 |
|
“buy the stock”
YOU SAID BUY THE STOCK... so now I’m gonna follow your investment advice and hold you to it!!!!
/jk
On a more serious note, thanks for your thoughts.
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> Ash78, voting early and often
02/27/2020 at 11:04 |
|
I don’t buy stocks for ‘excitement’ per se.
But the way I see it, even if it only goes sideways, I’m still getting that juicy 8+% dividend.
And speaking of the past, I was tempted to buy some Ford stock back in 2008 when it went down to the $2 range.
|
Ash78, voting early and often
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/27/2020 at 11:06 |
|
Wow, their dividend is 8% right now? Forget I said anything...that’s a lot closer to a sure thing than capital appreciation. I just looked it up at 6.5%...either way, that’s excellent.
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> Ash78, voting early and often
02/27/2020 at 11:24 |
|
The quarterly dividend is 15 cents per share... or 60 cents per share annually.
At $7.10, that translates to 8.45% dividend yield at the moment.
And given they recently set some new 52 week lows, they *might* be at or close to the bottom of the stock’s cyclical cycle.
I find that the time to buy a stock like TSLA or F is when all the reports and talk is doom and gloom. It’s when things are looking up and more rosy to think about selling.
I’ve bought and sold Tesla twice following that general principle... making money each time.
This is my first time buying Ford... but I think the same principle will apply.
One other thing I like about Ford that it kind of has in common with Tesla... some of the people running the show have a big personal stake in the company and have more to personally
lose than anyone else if the company goes south.
|
someassemblyrequired
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
02/27/2020 at 13:16 |
|
I might sit it out a few weeks though with the current craziness... stock never moves very fast upwards, you can wait till the spring/summer and probably get in at the same price or lower. If you do get in long near the money covered calls are your friend with F.
Again, standard disclaimer.... :D
|
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> someassemblyrequired
02/27/2020 at 14:16 |
|
Craziness, uncertainty and negative sentiment combined with the share price of a given company hitting
52 week lows
are circumstances where I like to buy.
I dunno if that makes me a contrarian. But I’ve had some success with it.
I’m not too worried if the share price dips a bit from here. I’m prepared to hold for years until everything is looking ‘rosy’ again.
I also noticed that TSLA is starting to come
back down to Earth... Down 10% today and at around $700.